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La Liga · Matchday 20Sunday 17 January · 16:00 · Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Atlético Madrid2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Real Sociedad5th place
ATM 64%X 22%RSO 14%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 137 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Atlético Madrid 0.5, Real Sociedad -0.3.
  • Atlético Madrid take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Real Sociedad score first, they win 40% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.0
Over 2.562%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
164%1.56X22%4.63214%7.06
Double chance
1X86%1.17X236%2.791278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.562%1.62Under 2.538%2.61BTTS yes56%1.78BTTS no44%2.28

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Atlético Madrid · Columns: Real Sociedad2-0 probability 10.1%

Form

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Head to head

Real Sociedad – Atlético Madrid13 September 20260-3
Atlético Madrid – Real Sociedad7 March 20263-2
Real Sociedad – Atlético Madrid4 January 20261-1
Atlético Madrid – Real Sociedad10 May 20254-0
Real Sociedad – Atlético Madrid6 October 20241-1
Real Sociedad – Atlético Madrid25 May 20240-2