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La Liga · Matchday 20Sunday 17 January · 16:00 · Estadio La Rosaleda
Málaga20th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Real Madrid3rd place
MAL 8%X 14%RMA 78%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 335 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.4, Málaga -0.8.
  • Last 5 games: Real Madrid 2.4 points per game, Málaga 0.4.
  • If Málaga score first, they win 28% of the time
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 91% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals0.6 – 2.5
Over 2.560%
Both teams score43%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
18%12.67X14%6.97278%1.29
Double chance
1X22%4.50X292%1.091286%1.17
Goals
Over 2.560%1.67Under 2.540%2.49BTTS yes43%2.32BTTS no57%1.76

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
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5
Rows: Málaga · Columns: Real Madrid0-2 probability 13.8%

Form

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Head to head

Real Madrid – Málaga30 August 20264-0