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La Liga · Matchday 20Sunday 17 January · 16:00 · Spotify Camp Nou
Barcelona1st place
Rinvalo prediction3-0High confidence
Elche17th place
BAR 85%X 11%ELC 4%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Barcelona lead by 311 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Barcelona 2.2, Elche -0.7.
  • Barcelona take 2.7 points per game at home.
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 94% of the time
  • If Elche score first, they win 18% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals3.4 – 0.8
Over 2.580%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score3-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
185%1.18X11%9.1224%22.52
Double chance
1X96%1.05X215%6.491289%1.12
Goals
Over 2.580%1.25Under 2.520%4.98BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.23

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Barcelona · Columns: Elche3-0 probability 9.4%

Form

Compare →
ElcheWDDWL

Head to head

Elche – Barcelona23 August 20260-5
Elche – Barcelona31 January 20261-3
Barcelona – Elche2 November 20253-1
Elche – Barcelona1 April 20230-4
Barcelona – Elche17 September 20223-0
Elche – Barcelona6 March 20221-2