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La Liga · Matchday 20Sunday 17 January · 16:00 · Estadio de Vallecas
Rayo Vallecano11th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Sevilla6th place
RAY 49%X 27%SEV 24%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Rayo Vallecano 1.6 points per game, Sevilla 0.8.
  • Rayo Vallecano take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • If Rayo Vallecano score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Sevilla score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.0
Over 2.548%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Rayo Vallecano win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.03X27%3.69224%4.22
Double chance
1X76%1.31X251%1.971273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.548%2.06Under 2.552%1.94BTTS yes52%1.92BTTS no48%2.08

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Rayo Vallecano · Columns: Sevilla1-1 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sevilla – Rayo Vallecano15 August 20262-1
Sevilla – Rayo Vallecano8 March 20261-1
Rayo Vallecano – Sevilla28 September 20250-1
Rayo Vallecano – Sevilla1 March 20251-1
Sevilla – Rayo Vallecano24 November 20241-0
Rayo Vallecano – Sevilla5 February 20241-2