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La Liga · Matchday 20Sunday 17 January · 16:00 · Estadio de la Cerámica
Villarreal9th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Alavés11th place
VIL 58%X 24%ALA 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Villarreal lead by 87 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Villarreal 1.1, Alavés -0.3.
  • Last 5 games: Villarreal 1.4 points per game, Alavés 0.4.
  • If Villarreal score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Alavés score first, they win 46% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.0
Over 2.556%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Villarreal win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
158%1.72X24%4.12218%5.67
Double chance
1X82%1.21X242%2.391276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.27BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.20

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Villarreal · Columns: Alavés1-1 probability 11.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Alavés – Villarreal28 August 20261-0
Alavés – Villarreal13 March 20261-1
Villarreal – Alavés10 January 20263-1
Alavés – Villarreal8 March 20251-0
Villarreal – Alavés9 November 20243-0
Alavés – Villarreal10 February 20241-1