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La Liga · Matchday 23Sunday 7 February · 16:00 · Spotify Camp Nou
Barcelona1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Atlético Madrid2nd place
BAR 69%X 19%ATM 12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Barcelona lead by 130 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Barcelona 2.2, Atlético Madrid 0.5.
  • Barcelona take 2.7 points per game at home.
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 35% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.5 – 1.0
Over 2.568%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
169%1.46X19%5.17212%8.24
Double chance
1X88%1.14X231%3.181281%1.24
Goals
Over 2.568%1.47Under 2.532%3.13BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.44

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Barcelona · Columns: Atlético Madrid2-1 probability 9.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Atlético Madrid – Barcelona4 April 20261-2
Barcelona – Atlético Madrid2 December 20253-1
Atlético Madrid – Barcelona16 March 20252-4
Barcelona – Atlético Madrid21 December 20241-2
Atlético Madrid – Barcelona17 March 20240-3
Barcelona – Atlético Madrid3 December 20231-0