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La Liga · Matchday 23Sunday 7 February · 16:00 · Reale Arena
Real Sociedad5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Real Madrid3rd place
RSO 17%X 21%RMA 62%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 201 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.4, Real Sociedad -0.3.
  • Real Madrid take 1.9 points per game away.
  • If Real Sociedad score first, they win 42% of the time
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.1 – 2.2
Over 2.563%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
117%5.97X21%4.66262%1.62
Double chance
1X38%2.62X283%1.201279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.563%1.60Under 2.537%2.67BTTS yes59%1.71BTTS no41%2.41

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Sociedad · Columns: Real Madrid1-2 probability 9.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Real Madrid – Real Sociedad26 August 20264-1
Real Madrid – Real Sociedad14 February 20264-1
Real Sociedad – Real Madrid13 September 20251-2
Real Madrid – Real Sociedad24 May 20252-0
Real Sociedad – Real Madrid14 September 20240-2
Real Sociedad – Real Madrid26 April 20240-1