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La Liga · Matchday 13Sunday 22 November · 16:00 · Spotify Camp Nou
Barcelona1st place
Rinvalo prediction3-1High confidence
Villarreal9th place
BAR 75%X 16%VIL 9%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Barcelona lead by 228 rating points.
  • Barcelona take 2.7 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Barcelona 2.2, Villarreal 1.1.
  • If Barcelona score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Villarreal score first, they win 28% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals3.0 – 1.1
Over 2.578%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score3-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
175%1.34X16%6.1129%11.38
Double chance
1X91%1.10X225%3.971284%1.20
Goals
Over 2.578%1.29Under 2.522%4.48BTTS yes63%1.58BTTS no37%2.74

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Barcelona · Columns: Villarreal3-1 probability 8.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Barcelona – Villarreal28 February 20264-1
Villarreal – Barcelona21 December 20250-2
Barcelona – Villarreal18 May 20252-3
Villarreal – Barcelona22 September 20241-5
Barcelona – Villarreal27 January 20243-5
Villarreal – Barcelona27 August 20233-4