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La Liga · Matchday 13Sunday 22 November · 16:00 · Estadio Coliseum
Getafe12th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Atlético Madrid2nd place
GET 20%X 27%ATM 53%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atlético Madrid lead by 187 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Atlético Madrid 3.0 points per game, Getafe 1.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Atlético Madrid 0.5, Getafe -0.5.
  • If Getafe score first, they win 54% of the time
  • If Atlético Madrid score first, they win 81% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 12%
Expected goals0.8 – 1.4
Over 2.538%
Both teams score41%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
120%5.07X27%3.66253%1.89
Double chance
1X47%2.13X280%1.251273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.538%2.65Under 2.562%1.61BTTS yes41%2.41BTTS no59%1.71

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Getafe · Columns: Atlético Madrid0-1 probability 15.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Atlético Madrid – Getafe14 March 20261-0
Getafe – Atlético Madrid23 November 20250-1
Getafe – Atlético Madrid9 March 20252-1
Atlético Madrid – Getafe15 December 20241-0
Getafe – Atlético Madrid15 May 20240-3
Atlético Madrid – Getafe19 December 20233-3