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La Liga · Matchday 13Sunday 22 November · 16:00 · Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Real Madrid3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Celta Vigo9th place
RMA 76%X 16%CEL 8%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Real Madrid lead by 226 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Real Madrid 1.4, Celta Vigo -0.3.
  • Real Madrid take 2.8 points per game at home.
  • If Real Madrid score first, they win 91% of the time
  • If Celta Vigo score first, they win 30% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.3 – 0.6
Over 2.557%
Both teams score42%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
176%1.32X16%6.0928%13.02
Double chance
1X92%1.08X224%4.151284%1.20
Goals
Over 2.557%1.76Under 2.543%2.31BTTS yes42%2.39BTTS no58%1.72

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Real Madrid · Columns: Celta Vigo2-0 probability 14.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Celta Vigo – Real Madrid6 March 20261-2
Real Madrid – Celta Vigo7 December 20250-2
Real Madrid – Celta Vigo4 May 20253-2
Celta Vigo – Real Madrid19 October 20241-2
Real Madrid – Celta Vigo10 March 20244-0
Celta Vigo – Real Madrid25 August 20230-1