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La Liga · Matchday 13Sunday 22 November · 16:00 · Estadio El Sadar
Osasuna15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Málaga20th place
OSA 60%X 24%MAL 17%

What does the market say?

OsasunaDrawMálagaRinvalo60%24%17%
Market55%25%20%

✓ Agree · both back Osasuna

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Osasuna 0.1, Málaga -0.8.
  • The market also backs the home side (55%).
  • If Osasuna score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Málaga score first, they win 46% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.8
Over 2.549%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.67X24%4.22217%6.05
Double chance
1X83%1.20X240%2.491276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.549%2.04Under 2.551%1.96BTTS yes48%2.09BTTS no52%1.92

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Osasuna · Columns: Málaga1-0 probability 12.2%

Form

Compare →
OsasunaDLWLL
MálagaLDLDL