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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 18Saturday 28 November · 15:00 · St Andrew's @ Knighthead Park
Birmingham City6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Bolton Wanderers19th place
BIR 68%X 20%BOL 12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Birmingham City lead by 138 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Birmingham City 2.4 points per game, Bolton Wanderers 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Birmingham City 0.3, Bolton Wanderers -0.7.
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Bolton Wanderers score first, they win 36% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.2 – 0.8
Over 2.559%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
168%1.46X20%5.08212%8.33
Double chance
1X88%1.14X232%3.151280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.559%1.69Under 2.541%2.46BTTS yes51%1.95BTTS no49%2.06

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Birmingham City · Columns: Bolton Wanderers2-0 probability 11.5%

Form

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