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Championship · Matchday 18Saturday 28 November · 15:00 · The Den
Millwall12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Burnley22nd place
MIL 52%X 26%BUR 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Millwall 0.5, Burnley -0.2.
  • If Millwall score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Burnley score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.0
Over 2.550%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Millwall win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.93X26%3.85222%4.51
Double chance
1X78%1.29X248%2.081274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.550%2.00Under 2.550%2.00BTTS yes52%1.91BTTS no48%2.10

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Millwall · Columns: Burnley1-1 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →
BurnleyWDLLD

Head to head

Burnley – Millwall3 May 20253-1
Millwall – Burnley3 November 20241-0
Millwall – Burnley21 February 20231-1
Burnley – Millwall30 August 20222-0