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Championship · Matchday 18Friday 27 November · 20:00 · St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Middlesbrough1st place
SOU 42%X 27%MID 31%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton take 2.4 points per game at home.
  • If Southampton score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.4
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Southampton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
142%2.38X27%3.68231%3.24
Double chance
1X69%1.45X258%1.721273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.41BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.59

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Southampton · Columns: Middlesbrough1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Middlesbrough – Southampton4 January 20264-0
Southampton – Middlesbrough27 September 20251-1
Southampton – Middlesbrough29 March 20241-1
Middlesbrough – Southampton23 September 20232-1