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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 18Saturday 28 November · 15:00 · Pride Park Stadium
Derby County23rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Watford21st place
DER 44%X 28%WAT 28%

Prediction

  • If Derby County score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Watford score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.1
Over 2.547%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Derby County win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
144%2.27X28%3.55228%3.60
Double chance
1X72%1.39X256%1.791272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.547%2.13Under 2.553%1.88BTTS yes52%1.92BTTS no48%2.08

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Derby County · Columns: Watford1-1 probability 13.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Watford – Derby County21 February 20262-0
Derby County – Watford22 November 20252-3
Derby County – Watford18 January 20250-2
Watford – Derby County24 August 20242-1