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Championship · Matchday 46Saturday 1 May · 12:30 · St Andrew's @ Knighthead Park
Birmingham City6th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Burnley22nd place
BIR 54%X 26%BUR 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Birmingham City 2.4 points per game, Burnley 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Birmingham City 0.3, Burnley -0.2.
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Burnley score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.0
Over 2.549%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Birmingham City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.86X26%3.92221%4.85
Double chance
1X79%1.26X246%2.171274%1.34
Goals
Over 2.549%2.04Under 2.551%1.97BTTS yes51%1.97BTTS no49%2.04

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Birmingham City · Columns: Burnley1-1 probability 12.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Burnley – Birmingham City27 December 20223-0
Birmingham City – Burnley19 October 20221-1