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Championship · Matchday 46Saturday 1 May · 12:30 · Pride Park Stadium
Derby County23rd place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Wolverhampton4th place
DER 28%X 28%WOL 44%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Wolverhampton 2.0 points per game, Derby County 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Wolverhampton 0.7, Derby County -0.9.
  • Wolverhampton lead by 72 rating points.
  • If Derby County score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Wolverhampton score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.5
Over 2.550%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Wolverhampton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
128%3.58X28%3.63244%2.25
Double chance
1X56%1.80X272%1.391272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.550%1.98Under 2.550%2.02BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.21

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Derby County · Columns: Wolverhampton1-1 probability 12.9%

Form

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