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Championship · Matchday 46Saturday 1 May · 12:30 · The Den
Millwall12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Stoke City7th place
MIL 55%X 26%STK 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Millwall 0.5, Stoke City -0.3.
  • If Millwall score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Stoke City score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.7 – 0.9
Over 2.546%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.80X26%3.90219%5.29
Double chance
1X81%1.23X245%2.241274%1.34
Goals
Over 2.546%2.17Under 2.554%1.86BTTS yes48%2.10BTTS no52%1.91

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Millwall · Columns: Stoke City1-0 probability 12.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Stoke City – Millwall21 April 20261-3
Millwall – Stoke City21 October 20252-0
Millwall – Stoke City15 March 20251-0
Stoke City – Millwall9 November 20241-1
Stoke City – Millwall23 December 20230-0
Millwall – Stoke City26 August 20231-0