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Championship · Matchday 46Saturday 1 May · 12:30 · Swansea.com Stadium
Swansea City3rd place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Middlesbrough1st place
SWA 30%X 27%MID 43%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Swansea City 0.3.
  • Last 5 games: Middlesbrough 2.6 points per game, Swansea City 1.8.
  • If Swansea City score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.5
Over 2.551%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Middlesbrough win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.36X27%3.65243%2.33
Double chance
1X57%1.75X270%1.421273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.551%1.98Under 2.549%2.02BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.23

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Swansea City · Columns: Middlesbrough1-1 probability 13.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Swansea City – Middlesbrough6 April 20262-2
Middlesbrough – Swansea City9 August 20251-0
Swansea City – Middlesbrough8 March 20251-0
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Middlesbrough – Swansea City6 April 20242-0
Swansea City – Middlesbrough16 December 20231-2