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Championship · Matchday 24Tuesday 29 December · 20:00 · St Andrew's @ Knighthead Park
Birmingham City6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Cardiff City17th place
BIR 60%X 23%CAR 17%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Birmingham City lead by 128 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Birmingham City 2.4 points per game, Cardiff City 1.4.
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Cardiff City score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.9
Over 2.553%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Birmingham City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.68X23%4.28217%5.88
Double chance
1X83%1.20X240%2.481277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.553%1.89Under 2.547%2.12BTTS yes51%1.95BTTS no49%2.06

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Birmingham City · Columns: Cardiff City1-1 probability 11.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Cardiff City – Birmingham City24 October 20261-0
Birmingham City – Cardiff City10 April 20240-1
Cardiff City – Birmingham City13 December 20230-1
Birmingham City – Cardiff City14 February 20230-2
Cardiff City – Birmingham City13 August 20221-0
Cardiff City – Birmingham City30 April 20221-1