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Championship · Matchday 30Saturday 6 February · 15:00 · St Andrew's @ Knighthead Park
Birmingham City6th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Stoke City7th place
BIR 57%X 25%STK 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Birmingham City lead by 74 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Birmingham City 0.3, Stoke City -0.3.
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Stoke City score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.7 – 0.8
Over 2.545%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.75X25%3.96218%5.63
Double chance
1X82%1.22X243%2.331275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.545%2.21Under 2.555%1.83BTTS yes46%2.17BTTS no54%1.86

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Birmingham City · Columns: Stoke City1-0 probability 13.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Birmingham City – Stoke City24 January 20261-1
Stoke City – Birmingham City13 September 20251-0
Stoke City – Birmingham City20 January 20241-2
Birmingham City – Stoke City26 December 20231-3
Birmingham City – Stoke City10 April 20230-0
Stoke City – Birmingham City5 November 20221-2