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Championship · Matchday 30Saturday 6 February · 15:00 · Pride Park Stadium
Derby County23rd place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Southampton2nd place
DER 18%X 23%SOU 59%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 236 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Southampton 2.6 points per game, Derby County 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Southampton 0.2, Derby County -0.9.
  • If Derby County score first, they win 45% of the time
  • If Southampton score first, they win 81% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.0 – 2.0
Over 2.557%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-2 is the likeliest score within a Southampton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
118%5.61X23%4.31259%1.70
Double chance
1X41%2.44X282%1.221277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.557%1.76Under 2.543%2.31BTTS yes55%1.82BTTS no45%2.22

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Derby County · Columns: Southampton1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

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Head to head

Southampton – Derby County11 April 20262-1
Derby County – Southampton4 October 20251-1