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Championship · Matchday 30Saturday 6 February · 15:00 · Fratton Park
Portsmouth11th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Bolton Wanderers19th place
POR 58%X 24%BOL 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Portsmouth lead by 84 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Portsmouth 2.2 points per game, Bolton Wanderers 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Portsmouth 0.1, Bolton Wanderers -0.7.
  • If Portsmouth score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Bolton Wanderers score first, they win 46% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.0
Over 2.555%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Portsmouth win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
158%1.72X24%4.15218%5.61
Double chance
1X82%1.22X242%2.381276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.555%1.82Under 2.545%2.21BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.16

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Portsmouth · Columns: Bolton Wanderers1-1 probability 11.2%

Form

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