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Championship · Matchday 30Saturday 6 February · 15:00 · Ashton Gate Stadium
Bristol City14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Middlesbrough1st place
BRC 24%X 26%MID 50%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 143 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Middlesbrough 2.6 points per game, Bristol City 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Bristol City 0.6.
  • If Bristol City score first, they win 54% of the time
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.6
Over 2.551%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Middlesbrough win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.16X26%3.81250%2.01
Double chance
1X50%1.99X276%1.321274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.551%1.97Under 2.549%2.03BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.16

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bristol City · Columns: Middlesbrough1-1 probability 12.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Middlesbrough – Bristol City14 March 20261-1
Bristol City – Middlesbrough20 December 20252-0
Bristol City – Middlesbrough21 February 20252-1
Middlesbrough – Bristol City19 October 20240-2
Middlesbrough – Bristol City10 February 20241-2
Bristol City – Middlesbrough25 November 20233-2