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Serie A · Matchday 21Sunday 24 January · 17:30 · Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
Bologna9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Atalanta13th place
BOL 45%X 27%ATA 28%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Bologna 2.4 points per game, Atalanta 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bologna 0.1, Atalanta -0.5.
  • If Bologna score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.2
Over 2.550%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Bologna win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.23X27%3.68228%3.59
Double chance
1X72%1.39X255%1.821273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.550%1.99Under 2.550%2.01BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.20

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bologna · Columns: Atalanta1-1 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →
BolognaWLWWW

Head to head

Atalanta – Bologna31 August 20261-0
Atalanta – Bologna17 May 20260-1
Bologna – Atalanta7 January 20260-2
Atalanta – Bologna13 April 20252-0
Bologna – Atalanta28 September 20241-1
Atalanta – Bologna3 March 20241-2