TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Serie A · Matchday 21Sunday 24 January · 17:30 · U-Power Stadium
Monza16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Lazio1st place
MON 19%X 23%LAZ 59%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lazio lead by 281 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Lazio 3.0 points per game, Monza 0.6.
  • Lazio take 2.4 points per game away.
  • If Monza score first, they win 45% of the time
  • If Lazio score first, they win 80% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.1 – 2.1
Over 2.562%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Lazio win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.31X23%4.43259%1.71
Double chance
1X41%2.41X281%1.231277%1.29
Goals
Over 2.562%1.61Under 2.538%2.64BTTS yes60%1.68BTTS no40%2.48

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Monza · Columns: Lazio1-1 probability 10.1%

Form

Compare →
MonzaLWLLL
LazioWWWWW

Head to head

Lazio – Monza11 October 20263-1
Lazio – Monza9 February 20255-1
Monza – Lazio10 November 20240-1
Monza – Lazio4 May 20242-2
Lazio – Monza23 September 20231-1
Monza – Lazio2 April 20230-2