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Serie A · Matchday 21Sunday 24 January · 17:30 · Stadio Benito Stirpe
Frosinone6th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Milan5th place
FRO 26%X 25%MIL 50%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Milan lead by 94 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Milan 0.5, Frosinone -0.4.
  • If Frosinone score first, they win 52% of the time
  • If Milan score first, they win 73% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.4 – 2.0
Over 2.565%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Milan win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
126%3.89X25%4.05250%2.01
Double chance
1X50%1.99X274%1.351275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.565%1.53Under 2.535%2.87BTTS yes65%1.53BTTS no35%2.88

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Frosinone · Columns: Milan1-1 probability 10.2%

Form

Compare →
MilanDWWLW

Head to head

Frosinone – Milan3 February 20242-3
Milan – Frosinone2 December 20233-1