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Serie A · Matchday 21Sunday 24 January · 17:30 · Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
Como4th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Napoli8th place
COM 45%X 28%NAP 26%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Como 2.6 points per game, Napoli 1.4.
  • Como lead by 65 rating points.
  • Como take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Como score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Napoli score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.0
Over 2.543%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Como win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.21X28%3.52226%3.78
Double chance
1X74%1.36X255%1.821272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.543%2.30Under 2.557%1.77BTTS yes49%2.04BTTS no51%1.96

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Como · Columns: Napoli1-1 probability 13.6%

Form

Compare →
ComoDWWWW
NapoliWLDWL

Head to head

Napoli – Como30 August 20261-2
Como – Napoli2 May 20260-0
Napoli – Como1 November 20250-0
Como – Napoli23 February 20252-1
Napoli – Como4 October 20243-1