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Serie A · Matchday 14Sunday 6 December · 17:30 · Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
Bologna9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Roma3rd place
BOL 27%X 26%ROM 47%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Roma lead by 154 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Roma 0.9, Bologna 0.1.
  • Roma take 2.0 points per game away.
  • If Bologna score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Roma score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.6
Over 2.552%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Roma win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.74X26%3.82247%2.12
Double chance
1X53%1.89X273%1.361274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.552%1.93Under 2.548%2.08BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.24

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bologna · Columns: Roma1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →
BolognaWLWWW
RomaDWDWW

Head to head

Bologna – Roma25 April 20260-2
Roma – Bologna23 August 20251-0
Bologna – Roma12 January 20252-2
Roma – Bologna10 November 20242-3
Roma – Bologna22 April 20241-3
Bologna – Roma17 December 20232-0