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Serie A · Matchday 14Sunday 6 December · 17:30 · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Milan5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Parma18th place
MIL 67%X 22%PAR 12%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Milan lead by 210 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Milan 2.0 points per game, Parma 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Milan 0.5, Parma -0.7.
  • If Milan score first, they win 88% of the time
  • If Parma score first, they win 41% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.6
Over 2.545%
Both teams score40%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
167%1.50X22%4.57212%8.66
Double chance
1X88%1.13X233%2.991278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.545%2.23Under 2.555%1.81BTTS yes40%2.53BTTS no60%1.65

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Milan · Columns: Parma1-0 probability 15.0%

Form

Compare →
MilanDWWLW
ParmaWLLLD

Head to head

Milan – Parma22 February 20260-1
Parma – Milan8 November 20252-2
Milan – Parma26 January 20253-2
Parma – Milan24 August 20242-1