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Serie A · Matchday 14Sunday 6 December · 17:30 · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Napoli8th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Lecce14th place
NAP 69%X 20%LEC 11%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Napoli lead by 192 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Napoli 0.5, Lecce -0.6.
  • If Napoli score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Lecce score first, they win 38% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.6
Over 2.548%
Both teams score41%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
169%1.44X20%4.97211%9.52
Double chance
1X89%1.12X231%3.271280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.548%2.07Under 2.552%1.93BTTS yes41%2.47BTTS no59%1.68

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Napoli · Columns: Lecce2-0 probability 14.6%

Form

Compare →
NapoliWLDWL
LecceLWLLL

Head to head

Napoli – Lecce14 March 20262-1
Lecce – Napoli28 October 20250-1
Lecce – Napoli3 May 20250-1
Napoli – Lecce26 October 20241-0
Napoli – Lecce26 May 20240-0
Lecce – Napoli30 September 20230-4