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Serie A · Matchday 14Sunday 6 December · 17:30 · Stadio Olimpico
Lazio1st place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Atalanta13th place
LAZ 54%X 25%ATA 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Lazio 3.0 points per game, Atalanta 1.0.
  • Lazio lead by 89 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lazio 0.5, Atalanta -0.5.
  • If Lazio score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.0
Over 2.551%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Lazio win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.86X25%3.93221%4.82
Double chance
1X79%1.26X246%2.171275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.551%1.98Under 2.549%2.02BTTS yes52%1.92BTTS no48%2.09

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lazio · Columns: Atalanta1-1 probability 12.1%

Form

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LazioWWWWW

Head to head

Lazio – Atalanta14 February 20260-2
Atalanta – Lazio19 October 20250-0
Atalanta – Lazio6 April 20250-1
Lazio – Atalanta28 December 20241-1
Atalanta – Lazio4 February 20243-1
Lazio – Atalanta8 October 20233-2