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Championship · Matchday 23Saturday 26 December · 12:30 · Toughsheet Community Stadium
Bolton Wanderers19th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Burnley22nd place
BOL 31%X 26%BUR 43%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Burnley lead by 119 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Burnley -0.2, Bolton Wanderers -0.7.
  • If Bolton Wanderers score first, they win 59% of the time
  • If Burnley score first, they win 69% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.6
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Burnley win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.25X26%3.78243%2.33
Double chance
1X57%1.75X269%1.441274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.36BTTS yes61%1.65BTTS no39%2.54

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bolton Wanderers · Columns: Burnley1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

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