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Championship · Matchday 23Saturday 26 December · 15:00 · Fratton Park
Portsmouth11th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Watford21st place
POR 55%X 26%WAT 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Portsmouth lead by 119 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Portsmouth 2.2 points per game, Watford 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Portsmouth 0.1, Watford -0.9.
  • If Portsmouth score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Watford score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.6 – 0.9
Over 2.545%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.82X26%3.82219%5.31
Double chance
1X81%1.23X245%2.221274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.545%2.22Under 2.555%1.82BTTS yes47%2.13BTTS no53%1.88

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Portsmouth · Columns: Watford1-0 probability 12.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Watford – Portsmouth21 January 20261-1
Portsmouth – Watford1 October 20252-2
Portsmouth – Watford21 April 20251-0
Watford – Portsmouth26 December 20242-1