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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 23Saturday 26 December · 15:00 · Deepdale
Preston North End24th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Derby County23rd place
PNE 40%X 28%DER 31%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Preston North End -0.4, Derby County -0.9.
  • If Preston North End score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Derby County score first, they win 62% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.2
Over 2.547%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Preston North End win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.48X28%3.53231%3.18
Double chance
1X69%1.46X260%1.671272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.547%2.11Under 2.553%1.90BTTS yes53%1.89BTTS no47%2.13

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Preston North End · Columns: Derby County1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Preston North End – Derby County17 January 20260-1
Derby County – Preston North End20 September 20250-1
Derby County – Preston North End2 April 20252-0
Preston North End – Derby County23 November 20241-1
Derby County – Preston North End2 April 20221-0
Preston North End – Derby County16 October 20210-0