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Premier League · Matchday 29Saturday 13 March · 15:00 · Vitality Stadium
Bournemouth7th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Newcastle United12th place
BOU 56%X 24%NEW 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Bournemouth lead by 70 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bournemouth 0.5, Newcastle United -0.6.
  • If Bournemouth score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Bournemouth win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
156%1.78X24%4.09219%5.14
Double chance
1X81%1.24X244%2.281276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.39BTTS yes57%1.74BTTS no43%2.35

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bournemouth · Columns: Newcastle United1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Newcastle United – Bournemouth5 September 20262-2
Newcastle United – Bournemouth18 April 20261-2
Bournemouth – Newcastle United21 September 20250-0
Newcastle United – Bournemouth18 January 20251-4
Bournemouth – Newcastle United25 August 20241-1
Newcastle United – Bournemouth17 February 20242-2