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Premier League · Matchday 29Saturday 13 March · 15:00 · Stamford Bridge
Chelsea4th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Arsenal1st place
CHE 22%X 26%ARS 52%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 161 rating points.
  • Arsenal take 2.4 points per game away.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arsenal 0.9, Chelsea 0.0.
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 52% of the time
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 78% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.7
Over 2.550%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Arsenal win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
122%4.56X26%3.86252%1.92
Double chance
1X48%2.09X278%1.281274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.550%1.99Under 2.550%2.01BTTS yes52%1.91BTTS no48%2.10

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Chelsea · Columns: Arsenal1-1 probability 12.3%

Form

Compare →
ChelseaLWWLW
ArsenalLWWWW

Head to head

Arsenal – Chelsea6 September 20262-1
Arsenal – Chelsea1 March 20262-1
Chelsea – Arsenal30 November 20251-1
Arsenal – Chelsea16 March 20251-0
Chelsea – Arsenal10 November 20241-1
Arsenal – Chelsea23 April 20245-0