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Premier League · Matchday 29Saturday 13 March · 15:00 · Elland Road
Leeds United11th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Brighton3rd place
LEE 29%X 28%BHA 44%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Brighton lead by 116 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Brighton 2.4 points per game, Leeds United 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Brighton 0.2, Leeds United -0.3.
  • If Leeds United score first, they win 59% of the time
  • If Brighton score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.5
Over 2.548%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Brighton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.49X28%3.63244%2.28
Double chance
1X56%1.78X271%1.401272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.548%2.08Under 2.552%1.93BTTS yes53%1.88BTTS no47%2.13

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leeds United · Columns: Brighton1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

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Head to head

Brighton – Leeds United5 September 20261-1
Leeds United – Brighton17 May 20261-0
Brighton – Leeds United1 November 20253-0
Leeds United – Brighton11 March 20232-2
Brighton – Leeds United27 August 20221-0
Leeds United – Brighton15 May 20221-1