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Premier League · Matchday 23Saturday 30 January · 15:00 · Brentford Community Stadium
Brentford6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Manchester United17th place
BRE 40%X 27%MUN 32%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Brentford 1.6 points per game, Manchester United 0.6.
  • If Brentford score first, they win 68% of the time
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 61% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.4
Over 2.555%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Brentford win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.50X27%3.64232%3.08
Double chance
1X68%1.48X260%1.671273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.555%1.82Under 2.545%2.22BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.43

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brentford · Columns: Manchester United1-1 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Manchester United – Brentford27 April 20262-1
Brentford – Manchester United27 September 20253-1
Brentford – Manchester United4 May 20254-3
Manchester United – Brentford19 October 20242-1
Brentford – Manchester United30 March 20241-1
Manchester United – Brentford7 October 20232-1