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Premier League · Matchday 23Saturday 30 January · 15:00 · Stamford Bridge
Chelsea4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Nottingham Forest19th place
CHE 45%X 28%NFO 28%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Chelsea 1.8 points per game, Nottingham Forest 0.2.
  • Chelsea lead by 71 rating points.
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Nottingham Forest score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Over 2.552%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Chelsea win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.24X28%3.60228%3.62
Double chance
1X72%1.38X255%1.801272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.552%1.94Under 2.548%2.07BTTS yes56%1.80BTTS no44%2.25

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Chelsea · Columns: Nottingham Forest1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Chelsea – Nottingham Forest4 May 20261-3
Nottingham Forest – Chelsea18 October 20250-3
Nottingham Forest – Chelsea25 May 20250-1
Chelsea – Nottingham Forest6 October 20241-1
Nottingham Forest – Chelsea11 May 20242-3
Chelsea – Nottingham Forest2 September 20230-1