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Premier League · Matchday 23Saturday 30 January · 15:00 · Anfield
Liverpool5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Everton14th place
LIV 54%X 26%EVE 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Liverpool lead by 93 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Liverpool 1.8 points per game, Everton 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Liverpool 0.5, Everton -0.2.
  • If Liverpool score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Everton score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.7 – 0.9
Over 2.548%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Liverpool win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.84X26%3.86220%5.05
Double chance
1X80%1.25X246%2.191274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.548%2.07Under 2.552%1.94BTTS yes50%2.00BTTS no50%2.00

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Liverpool · Columns: Everton1-1 probability 12.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Everton – Liverpool19 April 20261-2
Liverpool – Everton20 September 20252-1
Liverpool – Everton2 April 20251-0
Everton – Liverpool12 February 20252-2
Everton – Liverpool24 April 20242-0
Liverpool – Everton21 October 20232-0