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Premier League · Matchday 23Saturday 30 January · 15:00 · Etihad Stadium
Manchester City2nd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Arsenal1st place
MCI 37%X 29%ARS 34%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 68% of the time
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.2
Over 2.544%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Manchester City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
137%2.72X29%3.43234%2.93
Double chance
1X66%1.52X263%1.581271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.544%2.26Under 2.556%1.79BTTS yes51%1.97BTTS no49%2.03

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester City · Columns: Arsenal1-1 probability 13.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Manchester City – Arsenal19 April 20262-1
Arsenal – Manchester City21 September 20251-1
Arsenal – Manchester City2 February 20255-1
Manchester City – Arsenal22 September 20242-2
Manchester City – Arsenal31 March 20240-0
Arsenal – Manchester City8 October 20231-0