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Premier League · Matchday 23Saturday 30 January · 15:00 · St James Park
Newcastle United12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Brighton3rd place
NEW 27%X 26%BHA 47%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Brighton lead by 117 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Brighton 2.4 points per game, Newcastle United 1.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Brighton 0.2, Newcastle United -0.6.
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Brighton score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.7
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Brighton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.66X26%3.84247%2.14
Double chance
1X53%1.87X273%1.381274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.41BTTS yes61%1.65BTTS no39%2.54

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Newcastle United · Columns: Brighton1-1 probability 11.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Newcastle United – Brighton2 May 20263-1
Brighton – Newcastle United18 October 20252-1
Brighton – Newcastle United4 May 20251-1
Newcastle United – Brighton19 October 20240-1
Newcastle United – Brighton11 May 20241-1
Brighton – Newcastle United2 September 20233-1