TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Premier League · Matchday 7Sunday 18 October · 14:00 · American Express Stadium
Brighton3rd place
Full time5-0Prediction correct
Crystal Palace18th place
BHA 61%X 23%CRY 16%

What does the market say?

BrightonDrawCrystal PalaceRinvalo61%23%16%
Market61%21%18%

✓ Agree · both back Brighton

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Brighton lead by 134 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Brighton 0.7, Crystal Palace -0.5.
  • Last 5 games: Brighton 2.0 points per game, Crystal Palace 0.8.
  • If Brighton score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Crystal Palace score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.9
Over 2.556%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
161%1.64X23%4.33216%6.33
Double chance
1X84%1.19X239%2.571277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.556%1.80Under 2.544%2.26BTTS yes53%1.89BTTS no47%2.12

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brighton · Columns: Crystal Palace5-0 probability 1.4% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Brighton – Crystal Palace18 October 20265-0
Brighton – Crystal Palace8 February 20260-1
Crystal Palace – Brighton9 November 20250-0
Crystal Palace – Brighton5 April 20252-1
Brighton – Crystal Palace15 December 20241-3
Brighton – Crystal Palace3 February 20244-1