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Premier League · Matchday 7Sunday 18 October · 14:00 · Elland Road
Leeds United11th place
Full time1-1Rinvalo's pick: 0-1✕ Missed
Manchester United17th place
LEE 31%X 28%MUN 42%

What does the market say?

Leeds UnitedDrawManchester UnitedRinvalo31%28%42%
Market40%26%33%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Manchester United 42%, market Leeds United 40%

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Manchester United 0.6, Leeds United -0.2.
  • If Leeds United score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.5
Over 2.551%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Manchester United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
131%3.28X28%3.61242%2.39
Double chance
1X58%1.72X269%1.441272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.551%1.97Under 2.549%2.03BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.24

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leeds United · Columns: Manchester United1-1 probability 13.0% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Leeds United – Manchester United18 October 20261-1
Manchester United – Leeds United13 April 20261-2
Leeds United – Manchester United4 January 20261-1
Leeds United – Manchester United12 February 20230-2
Manchester United – Leeds United8 February 20232-2
Leeds United – Manchester United20 February 20222-4