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Premier League · Matchday 7Saturday 17 October · 12:30 · Hill Dickinson Stadium
Everton14th place
Full time0-2Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✕ Missed
Chelsea4th place
EVE 42%X 28%CHE 29%

What does the market say?

EvertonDrawChelseaRinvalo42%28%29%
Market30%26%44%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Everton 42%, market Chelsea 44%

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
  • If Everton score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 60% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.2
Over 2.548%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Everton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
142%2.36X28%3.54229%3.41
Double chance
1X71%1.41X258%1.741272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.548%2.08Under 2.552%1.93BTTS yes53%1.88BTTS no47%2.14

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Everton · Columns: Chelsea0-2 probability 5.0% · final score

Form

Compare →
EvertonDWDLL
ChelseaLWWLW

Head to head

Everton – Chelsea17 October 20260-2
Everton – Chelsea21 March 20263-0
Chelsea – Everton13 December 20252-0
Chelsea – Everton26 April 20251-0
Everton – Chelsea22 December 20240-0
Chelsea – Everton15 April 20246-0