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Premier League · Matchday 7Saturday 17 October · 15:00 · Etihad Stadium
Manchester City2nd place
Full time3-2Rinvalo's pick: 3-0✓ Result correct
Ipswich Town14th place
MCI 80%X 14%IPS 6%

What does the market say?

Manchester CityDrawIpswich TownRinvalo80%14%6%
Market76%15%9%

✓ Agree · both back Manchester City

Prediction

Predicted: 3-0
Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 334 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Manchester City 3.0 points per game, Ipswich Town 1.2.
  • Manchester City take 2.5 points per game at home.
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 91% of the time
  • If Ipswich Town score first, they win 24% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals3.1 – 0.9
Over 2.576%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score3-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
180%1.26X14%7.1226%15.90
Double chance
1X94%1.07X220%4.921286%1.16
Goals
Over 2.576%1.31Under 2.524%4.21BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.33

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester City · Columns: Ipswich Town3-2 probability 3.7% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Manchester City – Ipswich Town17 October 20263-2
Ipswich Town – Manchester City19 January 20250-6
Manchester City – Ipswich Town24 August 20244-1