TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Premier League · Matchday 7Saturday 17 October · 17:30 · St James Park
Newcastle United12th place
Full time0-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Aston Villa9th place
NEW 43%X 27%AVL 30%

What does the market say?

Newcastle UnitedDrawAston VillaRinvalo43%27%30%
Market42%26%32%

✓ Agree · both back Newcastle United

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Newcastle United 1.6 points per game, Aston Villa 0.8.
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.3
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Newcastle United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.32X27%3.69230%3.36
Double chance
1X70%1.42X257%1.761273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.558%1.74Under 2.542%2.36BTTS yes61%1.65BTTS no39%2.53

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Newcastle United · Columns: Aston Villa0-1 probability 5.9% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Newcastle United – Aston Villa17 October 20260-1
Newcastle United – Aston Villa25 January 20260-2
Aston Villa – Newcastle United16 August 20250-0
Aston Villa – Newcastle United19 April 20254-1
Newcastle United – Aston Villa26 December 20243-0
Aston Villa – Newcastle United30 January 20241-3