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Premier League · Matchday 7Sunday 18 October · 16:30 · City Ground
Nottingham Forest19th place
Full time0-1Rinvalo's pick: 0-1✓ Exact score
Arsenal1st place
NFO 21%X 27%ARS 52%

What does the market say?

Nottingham ForestDrawArsenalRinvalo21%27%52%
Market17%25%59%

✓ Agree · both back Arsenal

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 164 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Arsenal 2.4 points per game, Nottingham Forest 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arsenal 1.0, Nottingham Forest 0.2.
  • If Nottingham Forest score first, they win 53% of the time
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.5
Over 2.544%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Arsenal win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
121%4.72X27%3.74252%1.92
Double chance
1X48%2.09X279%1.271273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.544%2.29Under 2.556%1.78BTTS yes47%2.13BTTS no53%1.89

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nottingham Forest · Columns: Arsenal0-1 probability 12.8% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Nottingham Forest – Arsenal18 October 20260-1
Nottingham Forest – Arsenal17 January 20260-0
Arsenal – Nottingham Forest13 September 20253-0
Nottingham Forest – Arsenal26 February 20250-0
Arsenal – Nottingham Forest23 November 20243-0
Nottingham Forest – Arsenal30 January 20241-2