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Premier League · Matchday 26Saturday 20 February · 15:00 · American Express Stadium
Brighton3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Tottenham9th place
BHA 56%X 25%TOT 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Brighton lead by 138 rating points.
  • Brighton take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Brighton score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Tottenham score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.0
Over 2.555%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Brighton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
156%1.78X25%4.00219%5.29
Double chance
1X81%1.23X244%2.281275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.555%1.80Under 2.545%2.24BTTS yes55%1.82BTTS no45%2.22

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brighton · Columns: Tottenham1-1 probability 11.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Tottenham – Brighton18 April 20262-2
Brighton – Tottenham20 September 20252-2
Tottenham – Brighton25 May 20251-4
Brighton – Tottenham6 October 20243-2
Tottenham – Brighton10 February 20242-1
Brighton – Tottenham28 December 20234-2